As former President Donald Trump signals a return to sweeping tariffs in a potential second term, economists are raising red flags about the implications for American agriculture. Drawing on lessons from his first term, many experts warn that farmers could once again find themselves caught in the crossfire of global trade disputes.
“Tariffs act like a tax on our own exports,” said Dr. Elaine Marcus, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University. “In 2018 and 2019, retaliatory tariffs from China and other countries directly led to a sharp decline in U.S. soybean and pork exports.”
During that period, farm bankruptcies rose and the Trump administration responded with nearly $28 billion in aid to offset the losses. However, analysts caution that similar bailouts may not be politically viable in a second term.
Trump has recently floated the idea of imposing a 10% tariff on all imports and higher rates on Chinese goods. The Peterson Institute for International Economics projects such a move could lead to a decrease in agricultural exports by up to $18 billion annually, primarily due to retaliatory measures.
“Farmers are resilient, but policy whiplash can erode long-term planning,” said Marcus. “We’ve seen this movie before.”
